If you pay attention to any of the national baseball writers or the major magazines, I'm sure that you have read experts lament about the quality of baseball being played and the disparities between major and minor market teams. This does reflect in sports betting. The data below shows the number of games being played annually at lines between -200 and -299, large favorites, and the average line for these games.
My first observation is that the number of games played between these lines started at just over 300 15 years ago, fell gradually, and has increased again in the past two years. This suggests that the number of big disparity games is on the increase. The average line for these games has also increased as it hit -230 this season: they are getting more expensive. So clearly the disparity of talent between teams is growing as more and more games are being played at big lines.
The other observation is this. If someone had hired a group of chimpanzees 6 years ago and taught them to just bet every favorite in this range, the chimps would have had a positive return in 5 of the last 6 years. At the end of this season, the chimps will be sitting on a very large pile of bananas, earning over $8K so far in just this season. Please be assured that I will be watching this group very, very closely over the first couple of months of the 2020 season to see how this develops.
Good Hunting, John