Sharps On The Under In Sa-Den? 131 views

I am liking the under a lot in tonight’s NBA game. At the time of posting this the sharps have been all over this game. The under bet is only 35% of bets made but makes up about 65% of money bet. I’m sure the books are counting on lots of late over money from the public so they haven’t dropped the line too much as they probably think the late public money will be mostly on over anyways.

One of my programs I built tells me that late in playoff series (games 6 and 7) the under comes in about 58% of the time but on occasions where the line decreases after opening such as this did by going from 210 to 209 the under comes in at 63% which I don’t need to say is a ridiculously good number.

Lastly the 3 officials tonight average only 203.1 points per game when they officiate. Marc Davis’s games go under 53.1% of the time and John Goble’s games go under 53.6% of the time. Just betting this alone would have been a winning strategy over their 900 and 850 game careers.

Anyways obviously I like the UNDER a fair amount in this one but has anyone bet the over in the game and if so why do you think the over was a good play.




This is fifth straight game in this series that the sharps have been on the Under and they are just 1-3 so far. I present that solely as an FYI as I am on Under 209 myself.


Yes that’s a good point but I would chalk that up to variance. I still think the play is above 55-56% long term. Possibly higher. Thanks for the feedback Danny!


I like it when a plan comes together but did anyone find the last minute of that game really weird when San Antonio didn’t foul and just decided to lose the game? The chat rooms were blowing up with all kinds of conspiracies but I don’t know about that. It’s was just very weird not to foul down 4 points with your season on the line.


Please Login or Register to reply.

Ready to start winning?

Yes, Sign me up now No, show me the handicappers first