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Sports Lines And Odds Movements 3,767 views

Good day everyone. I have recently started reviewing sports lines and odds movements in greater detail. Some handicappers here at Pick Monitor have advised they are utilizing as a successful tool to assist them when handicapping sporting events. I am curious to know if any of those handicappers that have enjoyed success with this avenue are able to enlighten me as to whether or not there are any indicative signs that allow people to predict the direction the lines will move and where they may end up? My belief is that the information provided with such tools can only serve to enhance a handicappers abilities when shopping for the best line. Your responses are appreciated, thank you.

Edited 2/10/13 at 7:33PM by Timothy Wynn - No reason listed.

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Sportsoptions is great tool, for getting your money down at the right time, but Sportoptions is going to cost you. Watch Pinnacle, Bookmaker, The Greek and 5 dimes, With Pinnacle and 5dimes being the sharpest. When they move there's a chance everyone else will too, eventually.
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Thanks Reno. I have never heard of Sportsoptions before, is their web address the same with dot com after the name? Sorry, it's ok, I was able to find it ;)

Just wanted to ask if you have ever heard of Accuscore? It looks interesting, but they also charge for the services they offer which I believe entail more trend tracking, etc

Edited 2/10/13 at 7:58PM by Timothy Wynn - No reason listed.

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Boy... that's the $64,000 question. If we could somehow predict line movement we would all be rich! The people I have seen that can do it consistently are REALLY good handicappers and (I believe) has to do with their awesome ability at coming up with a better probability on the game then the current market line. An example of this is Mike McClain... I don't think I have ever came across anyone that can look at an MLB game, come up with his own line and have the market end closer to his line then when he released a play virtually every day. I didn't keep track of his Closing Value this past summer but I would say around 80% of the time we ended the day with +Value. He is awesome with telling us what a line should be and then watch the market adjust to it all day long.

The NFL is probably the only sport where I have a small chance at predicting line movement but I couldn't nail it down to how or why. It's more or less feel for me. Public perception, injury impact, VERY early line movement, line movement history with the two teams, etc.

Generally speaking the old axiom of buy the favorite early and the dog late still has a lot of value to it but I have been bit in the ass too many times trying to follow that exclusively.

Since your in Canada get a Pinnacle account and watch their dynamic odds feature. You can also gain sharp info from Matchbook and Betfair since those are open market matching services. Compare what you see to places like Bovada, Bodog, and sportsbook.com who are super square books. Watch moneyline movement compared to spread movement... they should move concurrently but it doesn't always happen. SBR odds is great tool for semi-current odds and line history/movement and is actually just as fast with a couple books as the paid line services.

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If you want to track line and odds movement then SportsOptions is your best choice...Accuscore is more of a service that gives you plays that do OK, but longterm barely or don't show a profit...SportsOptions is a great tool for measuring line movement and getting the right price at the right time!

Edited 2/10/13 at 9:03PM by PitchBlack - No reason listed.

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Yeah, I think I looked into Accuscore a while back and like PB said I found it to be more of a site pushing plays and systems like Sports Insights does. Most of those places you can get a free trial.

For anyone starting out trying to figure out lines and shop I wouldn't waste money on Sports Options or Don Best. You can get the virtually the same info from SBR Odds for free only it is delayed. Perfectly fine for learning.

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FWIW, I think that Accuscore is useless -- in fact, dangerous, since they do not record past results accurately (they allow systematic biases to inflate records, such as treating all NHL totals as -110 when their avg. odds were closer to -120). I have not looked at them in a year or so, but that is what I saw when I did. As for Sportsoptions, I have never used their line service, but I have tried their other service, BetLabs. Very pricey, but worth it for some people as you can backtest a lot of systems very quickly, incl. performance of line moves.

Regarding line movement in general, the only thing I know for sure is that 5 Dimes will move reduced juice lines by 2-4 cents on a single $100 bet, if they have the player marked as sharp. Heritage will usually react to the 5 Dimes move immediately. The others usually will not react at all (right away). And obviously, everyone will react to Pinnacle moves.

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madduxsports.com another site like SBR that has good delayed odds updates...also have very quick scoring updates and these aren't delayed...but don't buy their picks!
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Evo... You are thinking of Sports Insights with Bet Labs. Sports Options is similar to Don Best and basically just a line service. I tried SI about a year ago and didn't really care for it for the same reasons you pointed out about Accuscore. Very Gimmicky. I got a free trial to the Bet Labs and it seemed that it could be useful in the right hands but pricey and really anyone with some Excel knowledge and data sites could do the same thing for free... it would just take longer.

Edited 2/10/13 at 9:30PM by Parker - No reason listed.

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Ah, you are right. I had the wrong site in mind. I do think Bet Labs is worth it for a high-unit bettor simply bc it would likely take years to set up what they have on your own, and then months to test/tweak systems that only takes days with BL. But certainly it is expensive, and somewhat dangerous if you are at all prone to over-fitting systems.
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Vegasinsider.com is another free one but they're on a time delay and they've got the most Nevada books including all of the Reno ones for free. They also offer a service like sportsoption if you pay.
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Thank you everyone for your responses. Sounds like SportsOptions is the best option and some excellent points were made. I will keep all of this in mind in the future.
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Anyone know some good sources for public betting % outside of SBR Odds, PreGame.com, the 5Dimes odds feed, and the free SportsInsights graphs?

I'm also particularly looking for # of bets for exotic sports like tennis, etc

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I am not sure if you will find what you are looking for StatDude, but check the alllister.com sports betting directory.
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