Edited 2/10/13 at 7:33PM by Timothy Wynn - No reason listed.
Sports Lines And Odds Movements 4,004 views
Thanks Reno. I have never heard of Sportsoptions before, is their web address the same with dot com after the name? Sorry, it's ok, I was able to find it ;)
Just wanted to ask if you have ever heard of Accuscore? It looks interesting, but they also charge for the services they offer which I believe entail more trend tracking, etc
Edited 2/10/13 at 7:58PM by Timothy Wynn - No reason listed.
Boy... that's the $64,000 question. If we could somehow predict line movement we would all be rich! The people I have seen that can do it consistently are REALLY good handicappers and (I believe) has to do with their awesome ability at coming up with a better probability on the game then the current market line. An example of this is Mike McClain... I don't think I have ever came across anyone that can look at an MLB game, come up with his own line and have the market end closer to his line then when he released a play virtually every day. I didn't keep track of his Closing Value this past summer but I would say around 80% of the time we ended the day with +Value. He is awesome with telling us what a line should be and then watch the market adjust to it all day long.
The NFL is probably the only sport where I have a small chance at predicting line movement but I couldn't nail it down to how or why. It's more or less feel for me. Public perception, injury impact, VERY early line movement, line movement history with the two teams, etc.
Generally speaking the old axiom of buy the favorite early and the dog late still has a lot of value to it but I have been bit in the ass too many times trying to follow that exclusively.
Since your in Canada get a Pinnacle account and watch their dynamic odds feature. You can also gain sharp info from Matchbook and Betfair since those are open market matching services. Compare what you see to places like Bovada, Bodog, and sportsbook.com who are super square books. Watch moneyline movement compared to spread movement... they should move concurrently but it doesn't always happen. SBR odds is great tool for semi-current odds and line history/movement and is actually just as fast with a couple books as the paid line services.
Edited 2/10/13 at 9:03PM by PitchBlack - No reason listed.
Yeah, I think I looked into Accuscore a while back and like PB said I found it to be more of a site pushing plays and systems like Sports Insights does. Most of those places you can get a free trial.
For anyone starting out trying to figure out lines and shop I wouldn't waste money on Sports Options or Don Best. You can get the virtually the same info from SBR Odds for free only it is delayed. Perfectly fine for learning.
FWIW, I think that Accuscore is useless -- in fact, dangerous, since they do not record past results accurately (they allow systematic biases to inflate records, such as treating all NHL totals as -110 when their avg. odds were closer to -120). I have not looked at them in a year or so, but that is what I saw when I did. As for Sportsoptions, I have never used their line service, but I have tried their other service, BetLabs. Very pricey, but worth it for some people as you can backtest a lot of systems very quickly, incl. performance of line moves.
Regarding line movement in general, the only thing I know for sure is that 5 Dimes will move reduced juice lines by 2-4 cents on a single $100 bet, if they have the player marked as sharp. Heritage will usually react to the 5 Dimes move immediately. The others usually will not react at all (right away). And obviously, everyone will react to Pinnacle moves.
Edited 2/10/13 at 9:30PM by Parker - No reason listed.
I'm also particularly looking for # of bets for exotic sports like tennis, etc