Week 12 Ncaaf Discussion 151 views

Week 11:

FSU +3 (-117) W

Penn State -6.5 (-109) L

Northwestern - 2 (-106) L

Texas -7 (-108) L

Wisconsin/Iowa Over 37.5 (-111) W

Tennessee ML (+102) W

Week 11Results: 3-3 (-0.21 units)

Season YTD: 46-43 (+1.25 units)

Week 12:

North Carolina +4 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

I like getting 4 points in this game in what I think should be a close one possession type game. 8 of UNC 9 games have been decided by one score or less and 6 of Pittsburgh’s 9 games have been decided by one score or less and two others less than 10 points. Pittsburgh seems to be a team this year that plays up/down to it’s competition every week. They had much closer games then thy should have against Syracuse, Ohio, and even FCS Delaware squeezing out a 17-14 win. The Sagarin ratings show a strong SOS advantage to UNC as well who ranks 19th in SOS while Pitt ranks 53rd. We also have a strong advantage in penalties as this Pitt team has been one of the most penalized teams in the nation ranking 106th in penalties per play while UNC is one of the more disciplined teams. Pitt’s defense is great but very aggressive and leaves them vulnerable to teams that love misdirection and Mack Brown should have a few tricks up his sleeve coming off the bye. Howell isn’t the type to make mistakes and throw INTs that lead to turnovers only giving up 5 INT’s on the season and this Pitt defense thrives on turnovers. Although UNC lost two week ago to Virginia by 7 they were able to put up almost 200 yards on the ground and if we can get the run game going we should cover this spread easily. As long as UNC figures out a way to protect Sam Howell against a team that is great at bringing pressure - I think we win this one outright even but will gladly sit back with 4 points. Pittsburgh has had it’s fair share of issues protecting it’s QB too and UNC has been no slouch themselves ranking 24th in sack%. Let’s start the week off nicely with this Thursday night game.

Air Force -10 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units

First game I locked in after running the offensive/defensive line comparisons. No surprise Air Force strongly outweighs Colorado State on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage. Air Force loves to run often (84% of the time) and they have run effectively ranking in the top 10 of almost all line categories as well as yards per rush at 5.3 ranking 16th. The defensive line is the biggest weakness of this Colorado State team as they have allowed 5.4 yards per rush on the season, ranking #115th. They are also in the bottom categories of all defensive line stats. We also have strong advantages in the kicking game as Air Force’s kicker has made 9 for 9 FGs this season where CSU’s kicker has only hit 13 out of 21 FGs. We also have strong discipline advantages as Air Force is ranked in the Top 3 of penalties per play and game where Colorado State is in the bottom % of the league, ranking 103rd in penalties per play and 107th per game. Air Force should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field and putting it in the end zone as they have scored on 90% of their RZ scoring opportunities ranking #23rd and Colorado State has given up scores in the red zone 90% of the time against their opponents. Colorado State in contrast only scores 75% of the time of its RZ scoring %’s ranking 106th and they will face an Air Force team that knows how to bend and not break only giving up scores to opponents 74% of the time. We have all these statistical advantages as well as a stronger SOS so let's fire away for 1 unit.


sorry no writeups this week for these. Busy week

My Tracked Plays
Risked 1.05 units to win 1 Penn State -14.5 -105 vs Indiana
Risked 1.04 units to win 1 UNDER 45 -104 vs Michigan
Risked 2.04 units to win 2 Georgia -3 -102 vs Auburn
Risked 1.16 units to win 1 Air Force -10 -116 vs Colorado State
Risked 1.08 units to win 1 Arizona State -2.5 -108 vs Oregon State
Risked 1.05 units to win 1 California +3.5 -105 vs USC
These plays are being tracked under the username DapperDanPicks at Pick Monitor


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