Completed Picks. 90.79% followable.
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16 Handicapping Awards
2011 (Monitors/Betadvisor start July) 17-4 80.1%
2012 (Monitors/Betadvisor/Pickmonitor) 29-17 63.0%
2013 (Monitors/Betadvisor/Pickmonitor) 27-14 65.85%
Total: 73-35 67.59%
CSV File are available on both web sites to download pick history. To avoid any confusion, Betadvisor calculates pushes into winning% because that’s how it tends to be done internationally. In the states we do not do this, so in my numbers pushes are not attributed for.
The non-reduced juice BCL% on Total selections is 72.1%. I say non reduced juice because I play openers. If you take openers with reduced juice that number jumps to 80.50%. On 49 (45.37%) of the selections the number moved at least .5 points in the direction of my wager. On 2 of the selections the number moved at least .5 points against the direction of my wager.
In 2011-2013, my service used all wagering types. In 2014 I will only be doing totals with a projected total number of plays around 60. Each play will come with an in-depth write up as to the reasoning behind the selection. All selections will be sent via e-mail the night before the game. Plays are not to be redistributed or represented as your own original content.
Pickmonitor.com has many quality services that will make in excess of 150+ plays this season. This is not such a service. A sufficient bankroll should be in place to maximize a smaller amount of high quality selections. I don’t believe any proofed service exists that carries this combination of results and BCL combined for MLB totals or sides. Over the course of a `162 games season 60 selections might not be a lot, but since the season is so long, 60 selections is very much on par with a normal volume full College Football or NFL services. So while my service will run low on plays, it’s only comparatively speaking to other MLB services. 60 events with this type of profile is certainly a large number.
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Sample Write Up Padres vs Cubs
Total Over 10 +100 4/31/2013.
Wrigley field, based on wind, can play more severe than any park in baseball. You will never see a total as high as you will at any MLB stadium (Coors Field included) as you can see at Wrigley.
In yesterday’s match up the total was placed at 9, wind blowing out at about 10 MPH, about 70 degrees. Currently the Padres/Cubs are entering into the 9th inning collectively 3 for 22 with RISP, 8 runs in. This game should be easily playing at 10+ runs right now considering how many runners have been stranded.
On 4/14 a total was set at 9.5, much lower temps below 50 degrees but similar wind, I reference that game because 17 runs were scored and it’s the most comparable game to what we will see tomorrow as the Cubs have had all season. The game on 4/14 involved Lincecum and Jackson starting; both pitchers who have issues finding the strike zone, wind was blowing out, the game drew a heavy under umpire in Jeff Nelson.
Tomorrow/today’s game is so interesting because you have two of the wildest pitchers in baseball, playing in wind blowing out conditions AND you have that partnered with a hitter friendly umpire in Gerry Davis. Davis used to be regarded as perhaps the most hitter friendly umpire in baseball prior to the 2012 season. Over last year and this season his zone has expanded a little, but it’s still a pretty rare event to get that outside strike on Davis. With two high oriented GB pitchers this is a major consideration as that is precisely the location that tends to induce the highest frequency of double plays.
A lot of considerations in this one but the main one I can’t get my mind off of is just how rare it is to get two guys who are this wild paired up with a guy like Davis, in this type of environment. You just don’t see this very often. Yes, the double play/GB potential, missed opportunities with RISP bother me to an extent. The Cubs and Padres don’t exactly bring murderers row to the table from a hitting stand point, but about the only thing that could make this game more difficult on the pitchers is another 20 degrees and 10 more MPH of wind. Outside of that it doesn’t get any harder on a pitcher then what we will see in this game. If these guys can come out and toss great games, keep guys from getting on base, if the bats hit into 7 DP’s or strand another 20 runners and the play loses, I can live with that. This game involves a rare circumstance of a lot of variables coming together and on that basis a very high total is warranted.
I have this game at 10.5 vig over at 10 +100 certainly sufficient enough to get the price I wanted.
Play On Cubs/Padres Total Over 10 +100 Pitchers Must Start Volquez/Jackson
The game closed at 10.5 -120, final score Padres 13 and Cubs 7
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