Completed Picks. 92.33% followable.
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11/23 12:50pm Risked 5 units to win 4.39
110 Handicapping Awards
I am not a tout. I don't advertise, email, cold call, nor will you find me in any forums begging people to buy my plays. I'm a handicapper, I handicap the games and I bet my own money on them.
The last year or so I have been working on a math model that will hopefully with stand time. Models I've used in the past were based on stats and the bad thing about stats is that the market will eventually adjust and swallow up the edge. It's happened to me over and over where I'm doing well for a couple years and then boom the edge is gone. Instead of creating a new model every so often based on stats, I decided to go with a model that's based on the market. My new model is in constant motion, adapting to the very fluid market of sports betting. A basic description on how my model works, is that I use regression analysis ( A common strategy for day traders in the stock market) on closing numbers. Beating the closing number in sports betting is no different than beating the closing number in the stock market. It is the difference between winning and losing. Sports betting isn't about picking winners it's about beating the number and beating the market.
For me this is like the stock market so I always try get as much risk as I can spread small throughout the market, so there could be many plays a day.
Leagues I cap
Baseball: MLB, World Classic
Basketball: NBA, NCAA, WNBA, NBA Summer league, Big 3, Olympics
Football: NFL, NCAA, CFL, World Championship
Hockey: NHL, World Cup, World Championship, World Juniors, Olympics
Fighting: UFC, Bellator, Boxing
Soccer: MLS, English Premier, English Championship, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, Mexican Primera Division, Spanish La Liga, Euro Cup, Euro Champions League, Europa League, Gold Cup, CONCACAF Cup, CONCACAF Champions League, World Cup, Olympics and more
I suggest that followers only risk 1% on each play they follow.
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