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1 Handicapping Award

Top Handicapper

Bio

I'm a stats nerd that has been handicapping officially for about 4 years, but have been modeling sports for a little over 13 years.  I built my first Football Projection "Model" when I was 13 for a science fair project, but failed to beat the random results of a coin flip.  I have since developed my modeling skills in the area of sports, as well as other real life modeling including the stock market, public education, and economics.

My picks are based off of Econometric models developed utilizing large data sets for each sport, and an attempt to break each sport down to the most integral part, scoring.  My models attempt to determine the best way to project scoring as directly as possible.  In many cases this entails breaking down what leads to scoring for various sports, and at various levels.

I have spent most of my handicapping time working on Football models in both the NFL and NCAA.  Being that Football is my favorite sport I find it easier to spend hours a day sifting through stats that I enjoy rather than a sport I can't stand.  My best modeling and handicapping is not actually in the field I spend the most time though; Basketball has proven to be my biggest success.  NCAA has been a great set of data to hone my abilities in Econometrics and subsequently my handicapping.  I dabble a little bit in Baseball, but stick mostly to Football, and College Basketball; a slight tangent from the normal stat geeks that live for SABRmetrics.

My Motto in Handicapping and Sports modeling or modeling in general is that every process can be predicted numerically, given that you have the right data, and the correct methodology.

Personal Information:

I have a Bachelors in Economics which has led to my passion for Predictive Modeling, and a Master's in Economics with an emphasis in Statistical Modeling.

I am a frequent attendee to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and hope to present my Master's Thesis at the 2015 conference.

I'm always interested in chatting about statistical methods, or numeric handicapping techniques, as well as sports in general.  I have worked with a number of other sports fans and handicappers to develop models for their particular sports process, and am always interested in collaborating on projects.  If you have something on your mind, let me know, maybe we can work together.

Projects:

Coachability in Sports: Does coaching matter?

Competitiveness in Football

College Basketball Decision Tree Analysis

Harmonic Moving Averages for Stocks

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