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Picks

Should I blindly follow the star ratings?

The star rating formula has been back-tested using over 1,000,000 picks. These tests strongly suggest that all star ratings can be blindly followed to gain a profit. That means you can play each and every pick that is given at least one star - without doing any further thinking or filtering - and you should expect to profit in the long term. Though that doesn't mean that blindly following these picks is your best strategy. You'd probably be better off applying your own filters, or maybe even only playing the picks from one or two of the best handicappers.

Handicapper Rankings & Statistics

How often are the rankings updated?

The rankings are updated once per hour.

Why am I not in the handicapper rankings?

Only handicappers with 20 or more graded picks show up in the rankings, and newly eligible users are added to the rankings every hour, so you will show up within one hour after your 20th pick has been graded. Note, however, that the default rankings show handicappers who have made 100 or more picks, so if you have only made 20 picks then you will need to customize the rankings in order to see yourself.

Why did my rankings position change so dramatically?

The rankings page, by default, uses results from the past year, so if you had a really terrible week this week combined with a really awesome week over the same period last year (which is now dropped from the rankings) then this will lead to a large difference.

What is projected ROI and how is it calculated?

projected ROI is short for projected return on investment. It is a unique metric that - by utilizing the confidence metric - tells you how successful a handicapper is likely to be on any given pick in the future. If a handicapper has a projected ROI of 4.21%, for example, then you'd expect a future $100 play from that handicapper to win $4.21 and return $104.21 on average.

projected ROI is different than standard ROI in that it doesn't just assume that your current ROI will translate to your future ROI. In fact, it is mathematically certain that projected ROI will always be less than standard ROI. This is intentional, because we like to be conservative with the expectations that we set.

A handicapper's projected ROI tries to answer the question "if I jumped on board with this handicapper at any given time how should I expect him to perform?" It does not necessarily answer the question "if I stick with this handicapper for a long period of time how should I expect him to perform, on average, through the duration?" For certain accounts it probably greatly underestimates this value, but this is better than the reverse.

projected ROI = ROI * confidence

What is confidence and how is it calculated?

confidence is the most innovative and unique metric that Pick Monitor offers, and it's what makes the invaluable Projected ROI possible. confidence aims to answer the question "how likely is it that this handicapper's future results will be similar to his past results?"

The formula is a bit complicated, but luckily there's no need to understand it. For all you nerds out there, here it is:

confidence = prob(z) * r^2 * [min(500,num_picks)/500]

  • prob(z) is the two-tailed confidence interval of a given z score with a margin of error of 0.001.
  • r^2 is the coefficient of determination. Essentially, it tells you how consistent a handicapper has been. This is an important factor in determining whether a handicapper has achieved his results through luck or through skill.
  • The last part of the equation is used to devalue accounts with less than 500 picks. This minimum number of plays does not aim to represent a number of statistical significance but rather just has to be high enough to let the other confidence factors do their jobs.

What are cappermetrics?

Cappermetrics are advanced handicapper statistics that allow you to see a handicapper's true colors, much beyond the simple win % that most sites show. These metrics expose the weak handicappers and highlight the strong handicappers. They aren't included on the rankings page because they don't do quite as good of a job as projected ROI and confidence but you can find them for each handicapper on his profile page.

What are the cappermetric variables and what do they mean?

Wins (W): Total number of wins.
Losses (L): Total number of losses.
Units Won (U): The actual amount of units won or lost by a handicapper.
Effective Units (eU): eU = (U / AUR) * 3. eU adjusts the profit numbers to allow for easy comparison between handicappers. By normalizing every bet to 3 units each the eU number can not be artificially boosted by simply making a maximum bet on every game. By using eU, it is easy to compare a handicapper who bets 5 units on every game to one who bets 1 units on every game.
Win Percentage (WP): WP is perhaps the most over valued, and concurrently the least valuable statistic that we offer. A lot of people put a lot of stock in WP. Don't.
Effective Win Percentage (eWP): eWP is the win percentage equivalent to if every bet was made on a -110 line. eWP is a much better way to evaluate a handicapper than WP.
Return on Investment (ROI): ROI = P / (total amount risked). ROI, like eU, can not be exploited by betting large amounts.
Z Score (Z): Z score is a predictor of future success. The higher your absolute Z score, the more likely that your results were gained by skill than by luck. Z is imprecise at low sample sizes.
Average Odds per Pick (AOP): The average odds taken on each pick. For example, -110 or +145.
Average Units Risked per Pick (AUR): The average amount risked on each pick.
Average Daily Picks (ADP): The average number of picks released per day. This only takes into account days where at least one pick was made, so your ADP will not go down if you take time off.

General Account Stuff

Do I need an account to use Pick Monitor?

We tried to design the site to let non-users enjoy as many features as possible. That being said, there are tons of things that simply aren't possible without an account. For example, without an account you won't be able to talk in our forums, track your picks, etc. Account registration is quick, easy and free, and your information is kept confidential.

What's the Follow button on each handicapper's profile?

Click that button to follow as many members as you want and get every pick by all of your handicappers conveniently in one place with the option of getting them emailed to you as well. The follow button allows you to add or remove handicappers from your list. Though please note that if you don't have access to the handicapper's picks, then you will just see the games that the handicappers are on and not the actual picks themselves.

Why am I not receiving Pick Monitor's e-mails?

You must verify your email address before we can send you e-mails. You can do this from your settings page.

Can I delete my account?

Once you have made a pick you cannot delete your account. Pick Monitor serves as a monitor of past results and it would compromise our transparency to delete accounts and wipe away pick history. If you have not yet made a pick and wish to delete your account please contact us.

All Paid Memberships

Does Pick Monitor offer refunds?

We offer happy to offer a money-back guarantee on all PayPal subscriptions. Any pro-rated refund on an annual subscription will be based off of the full, non-discounted monthly price (eg your refund will be based off of 8 months of payments rather than 12). Individual picks are non-refundable.

For all memberships a 100% refund will be issued if requested within the first seven (7) days of purchase.

Additionally - for Recreational, All Access and XML subscriptions - if at any time after your first seven (7) days you would like to cancel your subscription - for whatever reason - please first cancel your subscription and then contact Pick Monitor requesting a pro-rated refund and we'll make sure you are refunded for the unused portion of your subscription.

No refunds will be given after the first seven (7) days for business memberships.

How do I cancel my PayPal subscription?

We're working on allowing you to click a button from your settings page to cancel your subscription, but it's not quite ready yet so here are the easy steps you should take in the mean time if you'd like to cancel your subscription.

You may wish to use this cool tutorial with pictures. If not, here is the step-by-step breakdown.

  1. Log in to PayPal.
  2. Click History in the sub-menu under the My Account main menu.
  3. Use the More Filters dropdown menu to select Subscriptions & AgreementsSubscriptions
  4. Click details next to the subscription to Zero Launch LLC.
  5. Click either cancel profile or cancel description depending upon which option you have.

If you'd like to take a minute to let us know why you're canceling that would be totally awesome and helpful, but of course you don't have to.

No matter when you cancel you'll still be able to keep using your subscription until the expiration date.

Recreational Membership

Do unused pick credits carry over to the next day?

No. Pick credits are replenished each day at 12:00AM Eastern Time. Your pick credits will be reset to the daily limit whether you have used all or none of your picks for the previous day.

Business Membership

Is there a fee to sell my picks on Pick Monitor?

You must be a Business member to sell your picks directly on Pick Monitor. However, there is no fee to sell indirectly. Regardless of how you choose to sell, there is no commission taken by us. The client management tools are also free of charge.

Can I set my own prices?

Yes. We give you four options for selling directly; Six Months, Three Months, One Month and One Week. You may set whatever prices you desire for any or all of these options.

Can I create my own packages?

Currently we are restricting all sales to the four different options mentioned above. If you feel that this is too restrictive please tell us about it in our forums.

I'm a Business Member. How am I paid?

Payments are made directly from the buyer to you. You have the option to accept payment via PayPal and/or Skrill.

If I already have customers can I manage them here?

Yes. With our free Client Management Suite, you can import your clients with ease. You can then run your entire business with just a few clicks per day!

Am I working for Pick Monitor?

No. Pick Monitor doesn't touch your payments in any way and is not involved in your business in any way. Pick Monitor is no more than the web version of a handicapper phone book. All business permits, licensing, taxes, etc are entirely on you.

Sports Pick Tracker

Is this a gambling website?

NO! Absolutely no gambling takes place on this website, and we do not endorse gambling in any way, whether legal or illegal. Our sportsbook is a FANTASY sportsbook where you play with FAKE money in order to SIMULATE a real-money sportsbook but without the risk. This is very similar to how the stock market has "virtual stock" games. Sorry for using all-caps, but that was important.

Is there a maximum amount I can "risk" at one time?

You may only have 100 picks in play at any given time.

How long does it take for picks to be graded?

Roughly 97% of picks are graded automatically within 15 minutes of event completion. The remainder of picks must be graded manually, and are generally taken care of within 24 hours of event completion.

Can other users see my picks?

Unless you are a business member your picks may be seen by paying members.

What if I don't want other users to see my picks?

Please consider using private mode which allows only yourself to see your current picks and your past picks. Please note, however, that private mode picks can not be transferred to public mode. Once it's private it stays private forever.

Do I receive money when users view my picks?

If you are a business member you keep 100% of all sales. If you are not a business member then you will not paid when other users see your picks. That said, we put a significant portion of our revenue into contests which pay back the members that help this website be so successful.

Can I wipe my record clean and start over?

You can reset your private (invisible practice mode) record as many times as you want. To reset your private record you must be in private tracking mode. Please go to the fantasy sportsbook and then click the "sportsbook settings" link on the right side of the page. First change the tracking mode to private and then a reset link will appear.

You may not reset your public record.

I accidentally made a pick. Will you delete it for me?

Sorry, but no. Even if you can prove that it was an accident, the answer is still no. Even if you email us within 15 seconds of making the mistake the answer is still no. It's nothing against you, it's just something that we have to be very strict on in order to retain maximize transparency.

I selected the right pick but for the wrong bet size. Will you adjust it for me?

Sorry, but no again. See above.

I forgot to enter a pick. Will you enter it for me?

No yet again. You must think we're very mean by now.

A line isn't listed for a game I want to pick. Can I just email you my pick?

Nope. Even if it's a game we should definitely have, we won't ever manually enter a pick for you. It'd be a boat load of work for us and would create a boat load of doubt about our transparency, so it's not worth it even if it's our fault for not having a game.

Where do you get your lines?

Unless otherwise specified all lines are from 5Dimes. We have no affiliation with 5Dimes, but we do find them to be friendly, cool folks.

On the page for each game you have a graph displaying "Implied Probability over Time based on Betting Odds". How is that calculated?

We keep a historical record of every time the line moves on every game in our database. The percentages for each team are calculated based on the no-vig lines for each team. For all lines prior to 7/11/14 at 4:45PM the percentages are estimated based only on the line for the home team.

Forum

What is REP?

REP is a very simple evaluation of community reputation/participation. It is earned by participating by writing quality content in the forums and it increases your voting power. Users with a high REP score effectivey act as forum moderators.

Why do I have to wait so long between making forum posts?

If your account gets enough downvotes by other members then our computers will automatically throttle the amount that you can post. Very, very few accounts ever experience this. To avoid having this happen to your account please be on your best behavior in the forums and only post things that you genuinely think will add to the community.

Ready to start winning?

Yes, Sign me up now No, show me the handicappers first